Dollar Divergence

The key point to get out of the NFP report is that today’s data is likely to show that the U.S. economy stopped losing jobs in December, says Brewer Futures Group. Catch Brewer Futures, and TheLFB trade team on ForexTV Live.

The U.S. Dollar is up slightly overnight ahead of today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Today’s report is hard to get exactly right because of the size of the survey but the consensus is for a break-even to slightly better payrolls number.

The key point to get out of this report is that today’s data is likely to show that the U.S. economy stopped losing jobs in December. Based on this premise, economists are looking for December Non-Farm Payrolls to rise by 10,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 10.1% from 10.0%.

Because of the wide range of guesses and the large margin of error, payroll growth could be zero but the margin of error is +75,000 to -75,000. The size of this margin of error is likely to trigger volatile trading conditions following the release of the report.

November’s non-farm payrolls report showed the smallest decline since the start of the recession. The number came very close to being positive; traders are hoping this report finally shows positive growth.

Initial claims reports over the past few weeks have shown a general improvement. This news coupled with other rising employment indices, points toward an improvement in the jobs picture. The negative to consider is the decrease in ADP December private jobs data. This report could be offset if there is an increase in government jobs.

A lower payrolls report will weaken the Dollar. The strength of yesterday’s market is an indication that traders are pricing in a good payrolls number. If it comes out below the consensus then look for the Dollar to retreat.

If the report is close to the consensus, the market is likely to rally, then settle into a range or weaken into the close. This will be because traders have already priced in this number.

A strong non-farm payrolls number will help the Dollar. Traders have been buying the Dollar in anticipation of a strengthening economy. A much better than expected number should help increase demand for the Dollar.

The EUR USD traded lower following the news that the Euro Zone unemployment rate reached 10% in November. This was the highest level since the Euro was introduced. The penetration of the retracement zone at 1.4350 to 1.4319 is a sign of weakness. Regaining this area is bullish.

The GBP USD is still trying to establish support inside a retracement zone at 1.6036 to 1.5988. Uncertainty over the upcoming general election is putting pressure on the British Pound. Concerns remain over the budget and other fiscal issues.

US Dollar

A Breakout is in the Forecast but what will be the Spark? Euro Range against US Dollar at Risk Ahead of European Central Bank Japanese Yen Outlook Clouded by Opposing Yield Trends British Pound to Face Limited Event Risk, 200 SMA Resistance Swiss Franc Forecast Remains Bullish Despite Economic Surprises Canadian Dollar at Risk with Oil Losing Favor Australian Dollar Poised to Test 2009 High on Interest Rate Outlook New Zealand Dollar Riding the Coattails of the Aussie, Risk Appetite

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast

US Dollar: A Breakout is in the Forecast but what will be the Spark? Euro Range against US Dollar at Risk Ahead of European Central Bank Japanese Yen Outlook Clouded by Opposing Yield Trends British Pound to Face Limited Event Risk, 200 SMA Resistance Swiss Franc Forecast Remains Bullish Despite Economic Surprises Canadian Dollar at Risk with Oil Losing Favor Australian Dollar Poised to Test 2009 High on Interest Rate Outlook New Zealand Dollar Riding the Coattails of the Aussie, Risk Appetite

PoliticalSchwarzenegger Proposes Cost-cutting To Reduce California's Budget Deficit

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger disclosed the budget for 2010-11, seeking to close the gaping $19.9 billion deficit over the next 18 months by curtailing costs. Additionally, the Governor declared a fiscal emergency and said, "My budget proposal protects education and reprioritizes our funds, reducing taxpayer dollars going to prisons and keeping funding in classrooms. It's time to enact long-term reforms that will change the way the most populous state and the federal government work together," The Governor's 2010-11 budget keeps the same funding level for education as in the previous year, cuts the cost of gas by 5 cents per gallon. The budget proposes to bring down spending by $8.5 billion and seeks $4.5 billion in alternative funding and fund shifts. Schwarzenegger proposes to obtain $6.9 billion in federal funds to close the balance fiscal deficit.

The Governor proposed a 15% reduction in state personnel costs by modifying employee compensation and reducing our workforce budget in order to generate $1.4 billion in General Fund savings. Further, employees will be required to bear a 5% reduction in salaries.

Canadian Employment In Review

Canada’s job market disappointed with a loss of jobs, says Forex Crunch in an interview with TheLFB trade team.

The Canadian dollar weakens but holds to gains – USD/CAD doesn’t lose an important resistance line. At least not yet. The Non-Farm Payrolls can take it anywhere.

Canadian Employment Change showed a loss of 2,600 jobs. This small job loss isn’t devastating, but it falls short of expectations – a rise of about 20,000 jobs. The Canadian Unemployment Rate met expectations and remained unchanged at 8.5%.

USD/CAD reacted with a leap from 1.0310 to 1.0370. This instant 60 pip jump is the result of disappointment, but it’s important to note that the important resistance line of 1.04 was not broken.

USD/CAD, as all the forex pairs, are awaiting the upcoming American Non-Farm Payrolls which are currently expected to drop by 3,000 jobs, but could also see gains.

At the beginning of the week, USD/CAD confirmed the break under 1.04. Although the move wasn’t strong, this was a very important support line.

Change in Qatar forex rate regime ‘unlikely’

A change in Qatar’s exchange rate regime is very unlikely in 2010–2011, Samba Financial Group has said in a report.

On exchange rate peg, there could again be ‘some divergence’ between the policy needs of the US and GCC states, particularly this year when US policy is expected to remain highly accommodative, it said. But Samba’s researchers do not see any change in the exchange rate regimes until the introduction of a GCC single currency.

“This could still take some time to implement and, in the first instance at least, is also expected to maintain the peg,” the Samba report said.

It also does not see a shift in Qatar’s monetary policy this year.

Currently, Qatar’s Monetary Rates (QMR) are out of line with those of the US Federal reserve. The QMR deposit rate is currently 2% and the lending rate 5.5%, against the Fed Funds rate of 0-0.25%.

“Normally, under the exchange rate peg to the US dollar there would be only a small spread between rates. However, when the US Fed began to reduce rates in 2008, the Qatar Central Bank did not follow suit due to its concern over then soaring credit growth and inflation.

“Now that credit growth has slowed sharply and inflation turned to deflation, there could be scope to cut rates to bring them in line with the US.

“However, we do not see this happening as concerns remain over potential inflationary pressures: from the large increase in hydrocarbons revenues expected next year, the continuation of a strongly expansionary fiscal policy, and a weaker US dollar.

“Thus Qatar’s policy rates are expected to remain unchanged, with any eventual tightening in the Fed Fund rates left to reduce the current spread with the QMR,” Samba said.

In this context, the authorities will have limited tools to deal with any potential build-up of excess liquidity as occurred in 2007-2008, the report said.

“Changes in bank reserve requirements and issuance of certificates of deposit are an option. It is also possible that having established a yield curve for international debt markets, the authorities may also look to sell local currency bonds.

“In addition, a large proportion of the expected current account and fiscal surpluses are expected to be channelled into savings and investment abroad rather than pumped into the local economy,” Samba added.

Usd To Find Pressure From Macroeconomic Data

The U.S. Dollar finished sharply lower on Friday following the release of a U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report which showed the economy lost 85,000 jobs in December, says Brewer Futures Group. Catch Brewer Futures, and TheLFB trade team on ForexTV Live.

This bearish number surprised traders who were looking for evidence that the U.S. economy stopped losing jobs in December.

Economists were looking for December Non-Farm Payrolls to rise by 10,000. Most came to this conclusion because of weekly initial claims and other employment index reports. However, the ADP jobs data report which was released earlier in the week showed that 84,000 were lost in the private sector. Today’s report which included both the private and government sectors lost 85,000 jobs. This leads one to speculate that either the government has to start hiring, or it has to begin spending more money to create jobs in the private sector.

The EUR USD rallied following the U.S. jobs data report. This bullish move erased an earlier loss triggered by an overnight report which showed that the Euro Zone unemployment rate reached 10% in November. Regaining of the retracement zone at 1.4350 to 1.4319 is a sign of strength. Upside momentum could be building which sends the Euro back to 1.4680 - 1.4799 over the near-term.

The GBP USD surged to the upside but was only able to settle inside a retracement zone at 1.5988 to 1.6036. Uncertainty over the upcoming general election most likely limited today’s upside action. Traders remain concerned about the budget deficit and other fiscal issues.

The bearish U.S. jobs picture helped weaken the USD JPY. In addition, the Japanese Finance Minister retracted statements he made yesterday regarding his desire for a weaker Yen. Technically, the USD JPY fell back below a key 50% number at 93.13. Breaking back under 92.32 will be the first sign of real selling pressure.

USD, yen stronger on risk aversion

The US dollar and the yen strengthened Monday as investors avoided risk after Japan’s gross domestic product did not grow as much as had been hoped in the second quarter.

Japan’s GDP added an annualized 3.7 percent in the second quarter, not as much growth as predicted but still an improvement over its 11.7 percent decline in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, the greenback was helped by news that the New York Federal Reserve’s general economic index was at 12.08 in August, up from minus 0.55 in July and its highest reading since November 2007.

Any reading above zero indicates expansion in the region’s manufacturing activity.

Still, the dollar was hurt by another bank failure, this time in Alabama, after four other banks closed last week to bring the number of failed US banks so far this year to 77.

At around 10:30 a.m. in New York, the yen traded at ¥132.9887 to the euro and at ¥94.555 to the US dollar, while the dollar traded at $1.4065 to the euro.

The pound, meanwhile, was lower on a report from Rightmove Plc (LSE: RMV) showing that the average price of a house in the UK dropped 2.2 percent in August, an indication that the recession might not be over there yet.

Mid-morning trade in New York found the pound trading at 86.26p to the euro while it took $1.6305 to buy a pound and the yen traded at ¥154.1741 to the UK currency.

Yen weakens on US data

The Japanese yen weakened Tuesday as good news from US retailers spurred investors to look for riskier investments among higher-yielding currencies.

US retail sales were up 2.7 percent in August; excluding auto sales, they were still up 1.1 percent in the month.

In afternoon trade in New York, the yen traded at ¥90.955 to the US dollar and at ¥133.1893 to the euro, while it took $1.4643 to buy a euro.

Meanwhile, the pound was weaker on comments from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King indicating that the Bank could soon cut the rate paid for the Bank of hold reserves.

Banks are now paid 0.5 percent on deposits of their reserves held by the Bank.

The pound traded at 88.89p to the shared currency in afternoon trade in New York, while it took $1.6403 to buy a pound.

The news that US retail sales had gone up so much in August helped the Canadian dollar higher versus its US counterpart as it traded at C$1.0736 to the greenback during the afternoon session in New York.

Pacific pairs drift downward, USD main theme

The AUD and NZD both have traded downward so far this session as Dollar strength dominates market themes. Pair had previously been supported by firm gold prices, but with bullion coming off, pair has retreated to the downside.

AUD is currently trading down around 30 pips in early trade against the Dollar, without encountering significant support or correction. Aussie trades at 0.9152 and the Kiwi quotes at 0.7312, down around 15 pips.

Next supports should be encountered soon, for AUD/USD look to 0.9110 (low 6 Jan), and for NZD/USD, take 0.7275 (consolidation level 31 Dec) and after that 0.7200.

USD strength tustles with firm Loonie, flat on session

USD/CAD is trading tightly range bound this session. Oil stays firms above $80 amidst political tensions and increased demand off the back of the recent cold snap.

As the seventh largest producer of oil, Canadas economy is closely linked to the price of oil, and the state benefits for a rise in oil prices. The midterm downtrend of this pair is testament to growing investor confidence in the Loonie.

Despite the increased market positivity around the Loonie, Dollar strength today stole the spotlight, as Greenback pressed upwards on an improved labour market and on growing expectations for a positive figure tomorrow. We find pair trading in range between 1.0350 and 1.0335.

USD/CAD currently trades at 1.0340, down just a single pip on the open. PreciseTrader comments on the technical indicators: "Hourly Trend is Sideways while 10375 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 10535 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy and Downside may be limited. The Daily Trend has been creeping lower and approaching the prior swing low of 10205.

Consumer Credit falls by a record $17.5 billlion. More than $5 billion expectations

The consumer credit fell by a record 17.5 billion in November. Revolving Credit (credit card) fell by -$13.7 bilion and Non revolving (auto loans, mobile homes) fell by -$3.8 billion. The fall is a combination of lower spending and tighter credit standards.

Currencies ahead of U.S. data

The markets are currently calm ahead of the U.S. data as investors are waiting patiently for labor report to be released later this afternoon, the non-farm payrolls in December are expected to show that the nation did not shed jobs. The Dollar Index, which usually measures strength of the dollar versus six major currencies, is currently traded at 77.94 while recording a high of 78.08 and a low of 77.79.

The euro zone released its final third quarter reading showing it was unchanged 0.4% while unemployment soared higher to 10.0% from the revised prior reading of 9.9% from 9.8 percent. The euro versus the dollar is being traded at 1.4303 between the support of 1.4280 and the resistance of 1.4360 while the pair recorded a high of 1.4334 and a low of 1.4286. The volume indicator on the one-hour chart is showing us that there is weak trading in the markets.

The pound against the dollar is currently being traded at 1.6005 between the support of 1.5905 and the resistance of 1.6055 while the pair so far recorded a high of 1.6037 and a low of 1.5914. The momentum indicators on the one-hour charts are revealing to us that the pair is being traded in an overbought area, yet here also the markets are stable while the pound was not affected by the UK releasing its PPI reading beating market expectations, as the news showed that prices climbed therefore easing deflation risks.

Turning to the dollar yen pair we see that it is traded at 93.29 recording a high of 93.66 and a low of 92.83, for the USD/JPY we see there is a support at 92.75 and a resistance at 93.50.

U.S. Government Trade Agencies

Agencies

Department of Agriculture - Foreign Agricultural Service

Department of Commerce - Bureau of Industry and Security

Department of Commerce - International Trade Administration

Department of Commerce - U.S. Commercial Service

Department of Commerce - U.S. Commercial Service

Department of Energy - Policy and International Affairs

Department of Homeland Security - Customs and Border Protection

Department of Labor - Trade Adjustment Assistance

Department of State - Bilateral Trade Affairs

Department of State - Directorate of Defense Trade Controls

Department of State - Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Affairs

Department of State - Intellectual Property Enforcement

Department of the Treasury - International

Department of the Treasury - Office of Foreign Asset Controls

Environmental Protection Agency - International Programs

Environmental Protection Agency - Climate Change

Export-Import Bank

Food and Drug Administration - Office of International Programs

Overseas Private Investment Corporation

Small Business Administration - International Trade

U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)

U.S. International Trade Commission

U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA)

Congress

House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee

Senate Finance Committee

Library of Congress - Thomas

Judiciary

U.S. Court of International Trade

U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit

U.S. Supreme Court

Resources

Trade.gov

Export.gov

TradeAgreements.gov

AGOA.gov

Manufacturing.gov

Business.gov

Regulations.gov

ImportSafety.gov

International Trade Law360: Mistakes To Avoid In Duties Cases

Washington, D.C., partner John Burke, Managing Editor of Baker Hostetler's China-U.S. Trade Law blog, was quoted in the October 5, 2009, International Trade Law360 article, "Mistakes To Avoid In Duties Cases."

According to the article, guiding clients through an anti-dumping or countervailing duty investigation can be a complex process, and there are a number of common errors lawyers should avoid to ensure that the process runs smoothly.

One mistake lawyers often make when preparing responses to [U.S. Department of Commerce] questionnaires is just to take information from their clients at face value and not investigate to make sure it's correct, said Burke. On some of the more technical aspects of the questionnaire, "clients may not understand the question Commerce is asking and give what they think is a right answer that's not right," he said. By catching those errors before Commerce sees the information, lawyers can avoid headaches down the line. In addition, lawyers often miss opportunities to add context to their responses in questionnaires that can help their case, Burke said. For instance, from the raw data it may appear that a company's imports have increased dramatically, but that may be only for a limited time because of a special order. Putting information like that in context, rather than leaving it unexplained, will lead investigators to analyze it differently, he said.

One of the most important stages of a case, according to Burke, is when representatives of the Commerce Department meet with a foreign company to verify the accuracy of the information it submitted to investigators. It's critical for lawyers to ensure that all the information is well prepared and organized so that when Commerce begins asking questions, "there are no hiccups," Burke said. "When there's anything complicated, you need to be able to explain it rationally, rather than sit around twiddling your thumbs trying to figure out what's what," he said. In those meetings, lawyers in effect act as translators for their clients, he said, not in terms of language, but in terms of helping the company understand what Commerce is looking for, Burke said.
According to the article, when a case ends up before the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT), the court can rely only on the agency record from earlier proceedings. Certain legal arguments may not prevail with Commerce, but if lawyers plan to take up those arguments at the CIT, they need to be on the record nevertheless, Burke said. "You need to think ahead to the argument you want to make in court. That's hard to do, because you don't know what you're going to argue until you have a decision," he said. "It requires you to think about what you're doing five steps ahead."

United States and India Meet During Trade Policy Forum

U.S. Trade Representative Ronald Kirk and India's Minister of Commerce and Industry Anand Sharma met in New Delhi on October 26 for the sixth ministerial-level meeting of the United States-India Trade Policy Forum (TPF). The two governments signaled their readiness to continue their bilateral trade policy dialogue with renewed vigor under the five Focus Groups: Agriculture, Innovation and Creativity, Investment, Services, and Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers.

"The United States and India have a unique opportunity to draw on our cultural and entrepreneurial similarities to significantly increase two-way trade and investment," said Ambassador Kirk. "American and Indian companies have already joined forces across a range of sectors. Our governments should work together to improve the environment for two-way trade even further, so that we can reap trade's economic benefits for both our countries."

Minister Sharma said, "The Trade Policy Forum provides opportunity for both governments to discuss and share their concerns and work towards resolving them. The potential for bilateral trade and commercial relations between the two countries are immense, and the Forum can provide the necessary momentum to the expansion of this relationship. The inputs of the dynamic private sectors of the two countries have also enriched the Forum." Minister Sharma expressed "deep satisfaction" on the discussions that took place during the Forum meeting. He noted the commitment shown by both countries for further deepening the mutual economic relations and said that the Forum "has established a roadmap for further engagement in this regard."
The two governments agreed to work together on a framework for promoting real and meaningful cooperation in trade and investment. They also agreed to work together to support greater involvement by small and medium enterprises in each other's markets, and to pursue initiatives in the further development of India's infrastructure, and collaboration on clean energy and environmental services, information and communications technologies (ICT), and other key sectors.

The delegations discussed the continued working of the United States-India Private Sector Advisory Group (PSAG), which had been created under the TPF to provide strategic advice. Ambassador Kirk and Minister Sharma expect that the work of TPF will benefit from the depth, breadth and diversity of expertise of the PSAG in trade and international affairs.

BACKGROUND

The United States-India Trade Policy Forum (TPF), established in July 2005, is an arrangement between the two governments to discuss trade and investment issues. The TPF is co-chaired by the United States Trade Representative and the Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry. Issues and concerns are discussed under five Focus Groups. The dialogue addresses a wide range of issues that will lead to initiatives in key sectors and create momentum for expanding bilateral trade. A Private Sector Advisory Group (PSAG) was formed in April 2007 as an adjunct to TPF to provide the TPF with views and advice from non-government trade and investment experts.

U.S. Agricultural Trade

Agricultural trade throughout the world is changing. Keeping up with fluctuations in markets, new and amended regulations, and issues that affect trade is challenging. Technology and fewer trade restrictions have opened international markets for both buyers and sellers.

U.S. agricultural trade programs are designed to develop and expand commercial outlets for U.S. commodities and to provide international food assistance. Farmers in the United States produce more with the same or even fewer resources than 50 years ago. American farmers must look to foreign markets because production and production capacity is increasing faster than domestic demand.

Trade provides U.S. consumers with access to a wider variety of foods at reasonable prices, including those not produced domestically. Trade brings tropical fruits, coffee, and exotic cheeses to American consumers. Imports make fresh fruits and vegetables, such as asparagus and grapes, available at affordable prices during winter months. U.S. food processors rely on global markets for many food ingredients, such as cocoa (combined with domestic sugar and dairy products) for chocolate.

What kind of information materials are available

U.S. foreign trade and global economic policies have changed direction dramatically during the more than two centuries that the United States has been a country. In the early days of the nation's history, government and business mostly concentrated on developing the domestic economy irrespective of what went on abroad. But since the Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II, the country generally has sought to reduce trade barriers and coordinate the world economic system. Americans are convinced that trade promotes economic growth, social stability, and democracy in individual countries and that it advances world prosperity, the rule of law, and peace in international relations.

Over the past decade, U.S. exports accounted for about a quarter of the economic growth. The United States also maintains a trade surplus in services, $79.7 billion in 2006. The biggest U.S. services export category was travel by foreigners to the United States, $85.8 billion that year. In contrast, the United States runs a large and growing deficit in merchandise goods trade. While the United States exported more than $1 trillion in goods in 2006, it imported more than $1.8 trillion worth. By far the top imports that year were autos and auto parts, $211.9 billion, and crude oil, $225.2 billion. The top sources of U.S. imports were Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, and Germany. Among the top U.S. exports in 2006 were autos and auto parts, semiconductors, and civilian aircraft. The top U.S. export destinations were Canada, Mexico, Japan, China, and the United Kingdom. In 2000-2006, even though U.S. goods exports increased 33 percent, U.S. goods imports went up even faster, 52 percent.

The United States supported trade liberalization and was instrumental in the creation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), an international code of tariff and trade rules. One other principle the United States traditionally has followed in the trade arena is multilateralism. Despite its commitment to multilateralism, the United States in recent years also has pursued regional and bilateral trade agreements. The emergence of electronic commerce also is opening a whole new set of trade issues. In 1998, ministers of the World Trade Organization issued a declaration that countries should not interfere with electronic commerce by imposing duties on electronic transmissions, but many issues remain unresolved. The United States would like to make the Internet a tariff-free zone, ensure competitive telecommunications markets around the world, and establish global protections for intellectual property in digital products.

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bearish

The US Dollar pushed sharply higher against the spectrum of major currencies last week as markets reacted to a decidedly upbeat interest rate announcement from the US Federal Reserve. Most significantly, Ben Bernanke and company said “deterioration in the labor market is abating,” which traders took as validation of the boost to the priced-in Fed rate hike forecast over recent weeks that was set off by better than expected outcomes for November’s nonfarm payrolls and retail sales reports. The US central bank is widely expected to look at the jobless rate as the key gauge for timing a reversal of its ultra-loose monetary stance, and a Credit Suisse gauge now shows that the market is pricing in 81 basis points in monetary tightening over the next 12 months, up from just 52bps at the beginning of December.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan struck a decidedly dour tone, saying the current momentum of self-sustaining recovery is insufficient and warning that overcoming deflation is a critical challenge, with the bank unwilling to tolerate CPI at or below 0%. The bank added that although the economy is picking up, the pace of improvement will be moderate until the middle of the 2010 fiscal year. This suggests the Japanese central bank may be starting to cave in to pressure from the Ministry of Finance to continue on with its liquidity-boosting asset purchase programs, a prospect that promises to underpin domestic bond prices and keep yields contained as the government issues a record amount of debt to finance the gargantuan fiscal deficit.

On balance, this monetary policy landscape seems to point to gains in USDJPY. Japan’s savings rate is high relative to other developed countries, reflecting the expense of living on an island with limited space and scarce home-grown resources. This translates into Japanese investors’ preference for safe, liquid assets that offer stable income over a long period of time. Typically, this means government bonds. While both Japan and the United States will have to introduce a good bit of new supply to finance their deficits, the latter will not have a central bank that is actively supporting prices and keeping a lid on yields. Indeed, the Fed ended its purchases of US Treasuries in October and looks to be laying the groundwork to begin raising borrowing costs next year. USDJPY is now 81.3% correlated with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, suggesting that the currency may gain as traders digest last week’s updates to the US-Japan monetary policy balance.

Popular Deposit Methods for USA Residents

At times, making a deposit into an online gaming site is difficult. It is not illegal in any way to play games for money online but the banks have made it difficult to make deposits. Below are the most popular and successful methods of depositing money into online gaming sites. Each gaming site has their own deposit methods so please check and see which methods the site(s) you want to deposit with accept.

If you have any trouble making a deposit, even with the proven methods I describe below, please email me at support@top5forex.com and I will work with you to get your bankroll to the gaming site of your choice.

EwalletXpress: Works just like Paypal. You open an account and link your bank account to your account. Then you go thru a simple and fast verification process. EwalletXpress gives you an immediate way to deposit up to $500 to your favorite gaming sites. Then, any money you put into your account is transferred from your bank account. It's the easiest and most successful way for US residents to deposit. Safe and secure, it's our recommended way to deposit.

Credit Cards: Most online gaming sites accept credit cards (Visa, MasterCard and Maestro but it's hit or miss whether the transaction will go thru. Some gaming sites have better success rates than others. We recommend finding an alternative online ewallet such as EwalletXpress or ones below that will allow you to fund your virtual account with your credit card, then transer these funds to a gambling site. There are also several prepaid credit and debit cards that are working to fund various ewallet accounts.

Money Transfer: Use Moneygram or WU to transfer money to a gaming site. Get the payment details from the gaming site and go to your local money transfer office to send funds. Very easy and safe.

Instant Checks, E-Checks or ACH: Some gaming sites still offer this option for US residents. It works by linking your bank account to the gaming site and making an electronic transfer.

Wire Transfer: Get the wire transfer details from the gaming site and instruct your bank over the phone or in person to send your deposit to them. May take 2-3 business days but very safe, secure and successful.

UseMyWallet: You need an invite from the gaming site to join so check that this option is available at the gaming site you wish to deposit with. It's the sister site to Ecocard (very successful but not available for US residents) and is available to US residents. It's like a pre-paid debit card or electronic wallet that you fund using your credit card or bank account. Great reputation in online gaming.

American Express, Diners Club International and JCB: Some gaming sites accept these while others do not. Please check with your gaming site to see if they are available.

Prepaid Debit Cards: An option available at a lot of gaming sites. Please check the available deposit methods at the gaming site you want to deposit with.

900Pay: Pre-paid debit card option. For more information seek out info at the gaming sites.

PrimaPin: A prepaid phone card that some gaming sites accept.

ToggleCard: A pre-paid debit card that some gaming sites accept.

eCheck: Has limited usage for US players, but still accepts US payments for old players.

Solid Debit: Solid Debit Card is a free prepaid debit card.

Top 10 Myths about Forex

Forex is a market where exchange of one currency with another currency takes place. It’s the market which provides accessibility and liquidity to the traders to buy and sell one foreign currency in exchange of another.

Forex traders seek profit in buying currencies low and selling them high. This kind of trading became more popular with the widespread of the on-line Forex brokers. There is a lot of information available about Forex on the web. However there also many myths surrounding the foreign exchange market:

Forex trading is easy. Many people that want to dive into the world of the foreign exchange market believe that the Forex trading is easy — you just read a book or two and then you will be able to earn daily profits with just 2-3 hours trading daily. Others think that they can buy a profitable strategy and it will make them rich in Forex. In reality that’s just a myth. Succeeding in Forex isn’t easier than mastering any other profession — it takes time, money and a lot of practice.

"I will make money in Forex, if I can trade stocks successfully." Success in stock market doesn’t imply that you will get success in Forex market — there are many differences between trading stocks and the spot currencies. First of all, Forex market requires a lot of hard work and dedication as this market is open for 24 hours a day. You cannot just sit in front of your computer for the whole day and night, so the best way is that you should find the most suitable time periods for trading. Second, “buy&hold„ strategy simply won’t work in Forex market. Third, you don’t have that much information about currencies as you can get from the companies’ reports and statistics.

"I can make profit whenever I want if Forex market is open 24 hours a day." Once again, you won’t be sitting in front of your PC for the whole day to be able to trade 24 hours. You’ll have to develop automated trading software to get the advantage of 24 hours a day working schedule.
"I can be a successful Forex trader just following someone else’s signals." Many beginning traders get burned by the blind signal-following. That’s like putting away the whole responsibility for your actions to someone else. That may sound cool, but in reality you end up with the huge losses. Learn to rely on your own knowledge and skills. Remember that there were no great signal-followers in any financial market.

No commission is to be paid in Forex market. You only have to pay the spread, but you don’t have to pay the commission. And what’s spread? It is the difference between the buy and sell price of the currency pair at the same moment. You may end up with the major part of your profits in the broker’s hands if you plan to rely on the short-term trading.

Forex is a scam. Some skeptics and disappointed traders think that Forex is just some new fad to scam people for their hard earned money. Although there are many scams that are hiding behind the "brand" of Forex, that doesn’t mean that the Forex itself is a scam. There are many institutional Forex brokers, regulated Forex account managers and other solid companies in the market to whom you can trust.

"I need to exactly predict the market outcome to be profitable in Forex." There is no scientific method to know something in advance in the market with a 100% certainty. There would be no Forex market if you could know the exact currency rates beforehand. Trading is not the game of certainties; it’s a game of odds. One of the first things that new traders learn is to think in the terms of probabilities and risk-to-reward ratios.

"I need to use a very complex strategy to be successful in Forex." It’s a popular myth, in which many on-line sellers would want you to believe. The main requirement to be successful in Forex is a self-discipline and money management. There are many traders that make consistent profits with rather simple and old strategies.

"I need to have a lot of starting capital to get profit in Forex." Big capital investment won’t help you in Forex. You don’t need a lot of money to diversify in currencies and you can’t move the currency rates with your trading orders (you’d need billions of dollars to do that). Actually you can trade with a very a little capital, because Forex trading is almost always leveraged with the broker’s money.

Forex is gambling because it’s completely random. Although there is no certainty in Forex (as in any financial market) it doesn’t mean that it’s completely random. And it’s certainly not a gambling, since your success in this market depends mostly on your skills and experience, not on your luck.

Knowledge is power so it’s better for you to learn distinguishing some stereotypical myths from the real thing. Don’t fall for the promises of getting some easy profits in Forex, but don’t be afraid of the market just because some people think it’s not possible to earn there. Be rational this quality will help you either if you are going to trade in Forex or not.

Dollar Extends Rally on Greek Credit Rating

The dollar gained today versus the euro and specially higher yielding currencies as speculations that Greece may struggle to pay its debts surged, raising demand for safety and providing support for the greenback and the yen to be the best performers in currency markets this Thursday.

The U.S. gained versus most of 16 main traded currencies after Greece, an Eurozone member country, received the second credit downgrade by Standard and Poor’s this year, decreasing attractiveness for riskier assets worldwide and forcing traders towards safety, favoring the dollar and the yen mainly. The pound declined significantly versus the U.S. dollar bottoming at a two-month low after a retail sales surprised analysts in Britain posting a decline for the month of November, reverting a growing trend for the previous month.

The dollar may advance specially versus the euro under this circumstances on the short term, and rates below $1.40 aren’t unrealistic, according to analysts.

EUR/USD traded at 1.4317 as of 14:30 GMT from a previous rate of 1.4535. GBP/USD traded at 1.6136 from 1.6373.

Retail Sales Force Pound Down

An unexpectedly negative retail sales report published today in London forced the pound down versus several currencies as it indicates that economic struggle in the country is still a reality in the U.K., shunning investors from pound-priced assets.

The pound touched a two-month low versus the U.S. dollar after the Office for National Statistics published the first retraction in retail sales in the U.K. in six months, indicating that the economic recovery process in the nation will take longer than expected and forcing the pound down specially versus the greenback and the yen, which benefited from a risk aversion scenario today after concerns regarding Greece’s debt situation emerged. The euro was one of the few currencies that didn’t advance versus the sterling as Greece, being an Eurozone member, affected the outlook for the bloc’s currency in a considerably negative way.

Even if retail sales fluctuate significantly and do not necessarily indicate severe problems for the British economy, the data broke a series of positive figures and was enough for setting the pound down on a day market by risk aversion, as analysts explain.

GBP/USD traded at 1.6150 as of 14:57 GMT from a previous rate of 1.6336. GBP/JPY traded at 145.60 from 146.65.

Brazilian Real Drops on Global Pessimism

The Brazilian currency had its sharpest fall since the end of September as several negative events in financial markets worldwide declined appeal for higher-yielding assets and commodities, which are both the best trading possibilities in the Latin American nation.

After the Federal Reserve declined possibilities of interest rate hikes sooner than previously expected and Standard and Poor’s downgraded Greece’s credit rating for the second time this year, appeal for emergent-markets and higher-yielding currencies fell, affecting the real which dropped versus most of the 16 main traded currencies.

USD/BRL traded at 1.7935 as of 20:51 GMT from an opening rate of 1.7545 today.

Greek Credit Rating Pulls Euro Down

The euro had a weak performance today losing versus the greenback and the dollar after Greece credit rating was downgraded by a financial agency, bringing risk aversion up in European stock markets.

After Greece’s rating second downgraded by Standard and Poor’s this year, the euro was deeply affected as concerns that several member countries using the common currency will still face complications in 2010, declining attractiveness for the euro that touched a two month low versus the U.S. dollar this Thursday.

EUR/USD traded at 1.4347 as of 20:19 GMT from a previous rate of 1.4517 in the intraday comparison.

Yen Falls on BOJ Low Rates Policy

The Japanese currency fell today versus the 6 main traded currencies in foreign-exchange markets after the nation’s financial authority followed the global trend among wealthy nations and ruled out rate hikes for the short-term future, declining attractiveness for the Asian currency.

After statements this week in the U.S. and the Eurozone affirming that interest rates will be maintained at very low levels for an extended period of time, this time, in Japan, the national central bank declared that interest rates are likely to remain at the current levels since inflation in the country still did not meet the targets which could provide grounds for a more hawkish monetary policy. The yen dropped versus all of the 16 main traded currencies, and still remains as the first option to fund carry trades, when an investors borrows money at a low cost to inject the capital in higher-yielding positions overseas.

The Bank of Japan position following the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve regarding borrowing costs is certainly affecting the yen’s outlook, according to analysts. Even if such statements don’t show up as a big surprise, the reaction on the yen charts was obviously negative.

USD/JPY traded at 90.38 from an intraday rate of 89.94. EUR/JPY rose to 129.59 from 129.20.

Canadian Dollar Benefits on Iran-Iraq Oil Tensions

The Canadian currency is ranking among the best performers today in foreign-exchange markets as the crude oil and metallic commodities rose today, favoring Canadian stocks that benefited from tensions in the Middle East region.

After Iranian forces occupied an oil well on its neighboring country Iraq yesterday, the crude oil rates jumped significantly, providing support for the loonie to beat most of 16 main traded currencies in the past hours, as the commodity is one of the main nation’s exports specially to the U.S., helping the Canadian dollar to gain specially versus its U.S. counterpart. Research In Motion Ltd., a Canadian wireless devices company best known for producing the Blackberry, forecast higher than expected sales and profits, adding confidence to Canadian stocks that were partially responsible for the loonie’s performance today in currency markets.

The oil rates combined with RIB performance provided the perfect pattern for the loonie to rally, according to analysts. A higher loonie, especially versus its U.S. counterpart can be expected in 2010 if the oil and gold continue to have increases on their demand.

USD/CAD traded at 1.0681 as of 16:48 GMT from a previous rate of 1.0723 in the intraday comparison. AUD/CAD traded at 0.9466 from 0.9495.

Swiss Franc Hits 9-Month High Versus Euro

The Swiss franc, considered a refuge currency, benefited today from a rather risk averse scenario and gained versus several currencies, declining below less than 1.50 line versus the euro for the first time since March.

Even if the Swiss currency is at rather considerably high levels, different from the last time it traded below 1.50 against the euro the Swiss National Bank did not intervened, as the outlook for the European single currency remained rather frustrating for another week.

Pound Remains Bullish on Mortgage Approvals

The pound found support to trade near a one-month high level versus the euro after a report showed an improvement in the number of mortgage approvals, adding attractiveness for the sterling before the end of this week’s session.

After the Bank of England published a report showing the highest climb in mortgage approvals for November this year, the pound gained versus several currencies and specially versus a less attractive euro, as the British financial authority affirmed that in 2010 the situation is likely to improve further.

Brazilian Real Falls Further on Risk Aversion, Currency Outlook

The Brazilian currency posted the second straight week of losses versus the U.S. dollars and several other currencies as risk aversion was predominant in this week’s session forcing investors back to safer bets in refuge currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc.

After speculations suggesting that Brazil’s real is overpriced spread out in financial markets worldwide, the South American currency did not manage to revert its past week’s losing trend posting another decline as currency markets closed yesterday, in a week marked by risk aversion after Greece’s deteriorating financial situation was exposed when Standard and Poor’s downgraded the nation’s credit rating for the second time this year, bringing pessimism among traders that opted for safer bets leaving emergent market assets less attractive. The Brazilian real gained more than 30 percent versus the greenback this year remaining as the best performer in currency markets in 2009.

Speculations suggesting that real’s levels aren’t back by fundamentals combined with a general risk averse sentiment during the week forced the real down versus several currencies, according to analysts. The real may extend its losses in the next week if this scenario remains unchangeable.

Australian Dollar to Decline on Interest Rate Outlook

The Australian dollar posted a significant decline this week and may extended its losses versus currencies like the U.S. and the Canadian dollar after policy makers affirmed that interest rates may not be hiked further in the short term, decreasing attractiveness for the Aussie dollar in currency markets.

Australia was the first country among world’s wealthiest nations to raise interest rates this year showing resilience after the most severe global economic crisis since the Second World War affected financial markets last year, providing support for the national currency to rank among the top performers among currencies in 2009. This week, after Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Chairman of the Board Ric Battellino stated that further interest rate hikes are unlikely to follow for the next months, ending a series of raises that helped the Aussie to grow in currency markets, and shifting the sentiment towards the mid term price estimates for the South Pacific currency.

Analysts are skeptical regarding the Aussie’s trends, and a rally that set the currency to levels as high as 0.93 versus the greenback is unlikely to follow, as not only the Australian dollar’s appeal tumbled, but also other economies around the world are providing more favorable reports currently, causing a capital outflow from the South Pacific nation that may force the Australian currency to a further decline specially versus the greenback and the loonie.

FOREX BANNER

FOREX RATES

FOREX PICTURES

Dollar still looks weak in the short-term

With unemployment still at historic highs and the state of the economy still fragile, most top economists expect Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to announce Wednesday (November 4) afternoon that the Central Bank is keep its key interest rate at its current low point.

Central Bank members conclude their two-day policy meeting later Wednesday. Along with the announcement on interest rate policy, analysts and investors are going to watch for commentary about the board’s perception of the overall economy as well as various key sectors.

The Fed has maintained a low to no lending rate policy for banks for several months as part of an effort to reduce lending costs and to encourage home, auto and other purchasing. This policy has helped mortgage-strapped homeowners to refinance in some cases and it has helped struggling debtors with lower credit card and loan financing costs.

One effect of a lower interest rate policy is that it has helped hold down an already beat up dollar. The dollar has been in a relatively weak position on the global front for sometime, and with little interest yield, no change appears on the horizon.

The perception of dollar weakness has not been as much because speculators believe the US economy is in that much worse condition than global counterparts. It has been created more as a result of investors fleeing dollar positions for safe investments like gold, which is currently closing in on $1,100 per ounce.

As the economy has improved, another reality has been speculators jumping into oil positions. The correlation between improving oil prices (currently over $80 per barrel) and positive sentiment on the economy has been real and obvious.

Despite holding firm in recent weeks, the dollar is still under short-to-medium term pressure against the Euro, Pound, and other major currencies. One Euro is worth just shy of $1.48, and looks poised for a surge past $1.50. One British Pound fetches $1.6531 and a retest of the medium-term high over $1.70 also seems likely.

The dollar has been especially weak against the Japanese yen of late. Global perception seems to indicate that many expect the world’s second largest economy to rebound and thrive more quickly than the largest. One dollar is currently worth only 90.83 yen.

Most analysts seem to agree that a low interest rate policy is still important until the labor sector improves. American consumers and businesses need all the help they can get. However, the dollar is likely to pay the price until it is freed from the binds of no yield.

Euro clears $1.50

Based largely on dollar weakness and rising oil prices, the Euro is currently worth $1.5018, after reaching a new 52-week high at $1.5051. The same dollar weakness has pushed the Pound back near $1.67, kept oil near or above the $80 per barrel level, and has sent the spot rate of gold soaring past $1,100 to a current rate of $1,115 per ounce.

If you had to find a trading chart that epitomized the concept of a slow and steady, healthy rise, it would be the medium to long term charts for the Euro-USD currency pair. Since its double (short-term) bottom near $1.25 in early March, the Euro has been on a consistent, healthy and very steady rise to its current position above $1.50.

Some analysts might suggest that the reason for such a consistent rise is that market factors have been consistently predictable in favor of a higher Euro-dollar ratio. Over the last several months, it seems every time the Fed restates its intention for low interest rates in the near-term, anti-dollar speculation continues to mount.

The consistent two steps forward, one step back trading of the Euro-dollar is unlike what typically happens when speculators are “guessing” and more jumpy as to what direction to take. As traders watch for major events that might affect the value of a currency, the more aggressive types usually try to act quickly to get in before everyone else.

This action, followed by either substantiation of the news or economic or surprise can often cause drastic price swings, which are often immediately corrected by reverse action (buying or selling).

The Euro jumped swiftly from $1.25 to $1.36 in mid-March, which was quickly followed by a corrective pullback below $1.30 in the next few weeks. However, since that point, trading action has been mostly stable with a consistent pattern of upward trend, followed by brief pullbacks.

As was noted in a previous article, the Euro traded from around $1.17 to its all time high near $1.61 from October 2005 to July 2008, before dropping to $1.25 during the summer swoon of 2008 that sent oil prices from $1.47 to near $30 in a few months. A quick look at the 5-year chart for the Euro-USD seems to show the Euro attempting to retrace its move up from 2005 to 2008. A similarly long upward move could take the Euro to a point near $1.67-1.68.

Certainly, economic conditions in either region (Europe or the US) or a change in US monetary policy could prevent the Euro from nearing or surpassing its high over $1.60. But, given that the long-term trend up has been consistent and steady, it would take something significant to break the mind-numbing pattern of up, up, up.

Dollar-yen on the brink

As the dollar remains weak across the board thanks to renewed concerns about the strength of economy recover, the dollar-yen ratio currently sits just above major long-term support in the 87-88 yen range.

The longer out you look on the dollar-yen charts, the more clear it is that this currency ratio is at a major point of determination. Two year and five year charts clearly demonstrate that long-term dollar support rests at this 87-88 yen level, which was touched once between December 2008 and January 2009, and again in early to mid October.

The dollar reached a historic low just below 88 yen when it fell hard from its all time high over 125 yen in the summer of 2007 to that mark just one and a half years later. After bouncing back over 100 yen in the middle part of 2009, the dollar-yen again fell on hard times with a steady move back to 88 yen in October.

It appeared as though buyers were pouncing on the under valued dollar during October when the dollar quickly bounced back over 92 yen. However, the enthusiasm was short lived and the dollar-yen is back ready for a retest of both its short-term support and long-term support.

Investments periodically face defining moments over the course of time and it appears that the dollar-yen is on the cusp of one very soon. Another clear bounce off support at 87-88 yen would form both a near-term double bottom and a more important long-term double bottom to coincide with the previous bounce off that level as the calendar changed from 2008 to 2009.

Another solid buying effort could pave the way for a medium to long-term reversal of direction for the dollar-yen, though it is hard for many to imagine such a swing at the moment given the low to no interest rate policy by the Fed and little positive economic news in the moment. Of course, currency reversals often happen before many speculators catch on. The momentum push is usually what produced a significant trend move or reversal.

The other possibility is that the dollar could make a clear nosedive through 87-88 yen support, potentially sparking a drastic move lower toward 80 and below. Typically, when an investment breaks below or through an important support or resistance level, there is near term follow through by momentum traders, especially if there is nothing in the market to prevent it. Given the significance of the 87-88 yen support for the dollar, such a fall is easy to imagine.

Technical traders have identified what is known as a bearish engulfing pattern on candlestick charts taking place in the trading pair during October to November. This is a pattern in which a reasonable, yet brief upward bounce is quickly “engulfed” by a swift move back in the direction of the bearish trend. Whichever direction the dollar-yen takes, someone is sure to profit.

Gold “Going to Run ’til Exhausted”

THE PRICE OF WHOLESALE gold hit yet another record high against all major currencies bar the Aussie Dollar and Japanese Yen on Thursday, peaking above US$1226 an ounce at lunchtime in Hong Kong.

“Volumes are thin. There is less buying in the physical market, and scrap seems to be entering the market faster,” says Walter de Wet at Standard Bank.

“We remain cautious of buying gold at current levels.”

Early London dealing saw the US Dollar tick higher and gold slip 0.5%, while European stock markets gave back light gains and government bond prices fell.

Crude oil held above $77 per barrel. Gold priced in Euros and Sterling peaked above €812 and £735 an ounce.

“The build-up of [$1200-priced] December call options took place not just on Comex – which expired last month – but also on the over-the-counter market where expiry happens later this month,” reckons Bhargav Vaidya, a Mumbai-based commodities advisor.

“Now that the target of $1200 has been reached, markets could correct from Thursday.”

“Further gains are possible but the risk of a correction grows,” agrees the latest Metals Monthly Asia produced by London’s VM Group for BNP Paribas Fortis.

“Metrics such as the marginal cost of mining gold or the price at which the jewelry market can soak up [metal] point to much lower prices, but when investment is this strong they are less relevant.”

“Once the buying has been satisfied,” says London market-maker Scotia Mocatta in its technical note, “we would expect an equally violent correction. [But] at this point there is no technical pattern to suggest the up move has run its course.

“In one-way directional moves such as this, the unit is going to run until exhaustion.”

On the demand side of the physical market, “We have been waiting for the Indian public to ‘alter’ its perspective on gold for more than a year,” writes Edel Tully in her latest Refining Monitor for Mitsui, the Japanese trading house.

Formerly the world’s hungriest private gold market, India has been overtaken in 2009 by Chinese households. Mumbai gold prices today rose 1.3% to hit a series of all-time highs, closing at 18,550 Rupees per 10 grams.

Spot gold began the decade at Rs 3,700 for Indian buyers.

“Will gold hit Rs 20,000…?” asks the Economic Times of India in an online poll.

“[At these prices] it is difficult to envisage a sea change in attitude in the near future,” says Tully. But “in general, scrap flows do not seem sufficient to temper gold’s rise.

“It is clear there is a certain level of underlying physical interest out of the traditional hubs.”

US investors wanting to own gold coins meanwhile face both rising prices and higher dealer premiums according to industry sources.

“There is price resistance among buyers as many just can’t get used to these levels,” says Coins Magazine.

“There has been a kind of seesaw effect as premiums rise but bullion remains flat, then premiums stabilize and bullion rises,” says the Numismaster website.

The US Mint’s suspension of Gold Eagle production has driven up the price of other retail bullion products “such as Krugerrands and Maple Leafs” notes the South Oregon Mail Tribune, quoting a local dealer.

“The premiums on major gold coins, those at or close to an ounce of gold content, now sell for $5-12 per ounce more above the spot price than they did two weeks ago,” says Liberty Coin Service’s Patrick Heller.

That equals an extra 1% charge on top of the more standard 5% premium typically charged by retail dealers.

US dollar continues its rise as risk appetite diminishes

The US dollar index continues to push higher hitting its highest levels since early September as the risk aversion trade returns with a vengeance. The dollar index has posted a high of so far of 77.85 with the Euro suffering the most on investor fears about the level of debt contagion in the Euro zone.

The pound also suffered on the markets today after retail sales for November came in lower than expected, posting a decline of 0.3% against an expectation os a rise of 0.5%.

US weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected at 480k, against an expectation of 465k, but it was last nights FOMC statement that set the tone for today as the dollar gained across the board.

EURUSD- this morning’s break below the 1.4480 level in Asia, has provoked a significant short covering rally in the dollar, and has opened up a test of the 1.4120 level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 1.2460 to the twin highs at 1.5145. While fears about the debt situation in the Euro zone persist the Euro will continue to remain under pressure.

GBPUSD - the pound has slipped below the 1.6200 level on the back of the poor retail sales data and looks all set to test the key 1.6000 level over the next few days. A low today of 1.6080 has been the extent of the down move so far. Any rallies should find resistance around 1.6220 and 1.6300.

EURGBP - a close below 0.8875 could well prove negative in the long term for the Euro here, but it would need a break of 0.8805/10 to propel the momentum downward. A recovery above today’s highs at 0.8920 is needed to stabilise and diminish the downside pressure.

USDJPY - continues to benefit from US dollar strength but is struggling around the cloud resistance between 90.30 and 90.75. A break and close above 90.75 could well propel the dollar towards the 92.70 area. It does need to stay above trend line support at 89.25 to maintain the current momentum.

US dollar pares recent gains in Asia

After posting its highest levels for 3 months at 77.94 the dollar index has slipped back in Asia trading on profit-taking, and news that a report due to be published today will forecast that business confidence in Germany rose to the highest level since July 2008.

The yen also strengthened on speculation that Japanese exporters are repatriating profits before the year-end. The Bank of Japan held its benchmark rate at 0.1 percent, as forecast by economists.

The pound also suffered on the markets yesterday after retail sales for November came in lower than expected, posting a decline of 0.3% against an expectation of a rise of 0.5%. This morning’s UK PSNBR and money supply figures are the only figures of any note out today and how the markets react to these will determine whether the pound has further to fall.

EURUSD - has managed to regain some ground overnight checking the falls of the last few days, after failing to break below yesterday’s lows of 1.4305 in Europe yesterday. Downside pressure remains the focus, targeting 1.4120, but we could see the Euro rally back to 1.4505/10, the previous break-out level on any short squeeze.

GBPUSD - the pound has slipped below the 1.6200 level on the back of yesterday’s poor retail sales data and looks all set to test the key 1.6000 level over the next few days. A low yesterday of 1.6080 has been the extent of the down move so far. With money supply and PSNBR figures for November out at 9:30am this morning we could see some quite choppy trading. Any rallies should find resistance around 1.6220, which was the Asia high and 1.6300.

EURGBP - downside pressure remains the focus for now, while below 0.8920 but we have yet to close below 0.8875, so the downside is by no means a certainty here either. It would need a break of 0.8805/10 to propel the momentum downward. A recovery above yesterday’s highs at 0.8920 is needed to stabilise and diminish the downside pressure.

US dollar continues to remain firm as yen and sterling weaken

The US dollar has continued its rise overnight as 10 year US treasury yields hit their highest levels since August, pushing above 3.7%.

The yen has also lost ground as the Bank of Japan signalled its intention to keep rates as low as possible to fight off deflation.

Sterling has also looked weak on the back of the resurgent dollar, ahead of data due out today, which is expected to show that that the UK economy is closer to pulling out of recession than previously thought.
Final figures for Q3 GDP are expected to show a contraction of -0.1% instead of the previous figure of -0.3%. The adjusted YoY figure is expected to come in at -4.9%.
The US also has a host of figures out today, including its final annualized GDP figures for Q3, as well as home sales and personal consumption data.

With thin trading volumes expected, moves are expected to be quite choppy.

EURUSD - despite squeezing up to 1.4375 yesterday, the Euro continues to remain subdued against the dollar, drifting back towards its lows last week at 1.4260/70. This downside pressure remains intact, targeting 1.4190, the 200 day moving average, then 1.4120. Given the thin trading volumes expected this week, today’s data could spark a squeeze towards 1.4420/30, but does not alter the risk for a lower Euro overall.

GBPUSD - has made new lows overnight at 1.6030, as it continues to press towards its 200 day moving average at 1.6010. The pound should find some level of support through here between 1.5980 and 1.6000. A break of this level then re-targets the lows in October at 1.5710. As with the Euro the cable could be susceptible to rallies back to 1.6300, but the prognosis is for a lower sterling overall.

EURGBP - the Euro squeezed back to 0.8920 yesterday, in fact it over-spilled to 0.8927, but the resistance has held so far. The downward momentum remains intact while below this level. The Euro seems to have built a bit of a base at 0.8850 for now. A move below targets 0.8805/10.

USDJPY - the yen finally broke above Friday’s highs, and tested the 91.40 initially in Asia with 91.47 being the high so far. The next target lies at 92.70, the October highs, while above the trend line from the lows now at 90.00. The market should also find some support at 90.70 last weeks highs.

Sterling and Euro continue their falls against the dollar

The US dollar index has continued to rise overnight, making new 3 month highs, after data showed that sales of existing U.S. homes rose more than forecast in November.

This has bred increasing confidence that the recovery is starting to gain traction in the US economy. The recent better data is supporting the belief that the US central bank may start to move rates higher, sooner rather than later, and any increase, above expectations, in new US home sales this afternoon, will continue to support that belief.

The dollar continued to gain against the Euro and the pound, on comments by ratings agency Fitch’s, global strategist Brian Coulton, who stated that unless the UK and France took serious steps to deal with their burgeoning fiscal deficits, they could no longer rely on their top AAA rating for much longer.

The pound will again be in the spotlight today, after yesterday’s slightly disappointing GDP revision, when the Bank of England publishes its minutes from its December meeting.

EURUSD - the Euro continued its declines yesterday, taking out last weeks lows at 1.4260/70, and hitting 1.4215 in European trading yesterday, stopping just short of the 200 day moving average at 1.4197. Long term targets remain at 1.4120, and then 1.3800 in the first quarter of 2010.

GBPUSD - the break and close below the long term 200 day moving average yesterday has shifted sentiment even more bearish for the pound, especially in light of the comments by Fitch and the slightly worse then expected GDP revision. UK 10 year gilt futures yields closed at their highest levels since June, as investors shunned UK gilts. The pound needs to get back above 1.6020 to minimise the risk of a move the October lows at 1.5710.

EURGBP - the weakness of sterling has boosted the Euro here as it rebounded above the 0.8920/30 resistance. It has managed to hold onto these gains so far, holding above 0.8920 over the last 12 hours. While it does so the risk is for further sterling declines towards 0.8970/80.

USDJPY - the dollar has continued its rise against the yen, and is on course to post its biggest monthly rise since February this year, as it looks to head towards the October highs at 92.70.
Bank of Japan governor Shirakawa’s determination to fight deflation with “virtually zero” rates is undermining the yen and giving respite to Japanese exporters.

Outlook for Sterling in 2010

At the turn of the year the prospects for the pound didn’t look good. The dollar was looking strong, and the euro looked as if it was going to test parity.
The sterling index had just posted new all time lows at 73.17 and the banking sector looked set to implode spectacularly.

As January progressed the news didn’t get any better with Royal Bank of Scotland’s share price hitting all-time lows of 10p, and the dollar rate touching its lowest levels since 1985 at 1.3500.

Influential investors were also lining up to give the pound a kicking, including Jim Rogers who announced on the 20th January that sterling was finished “I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have” he said. “It’s finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the UK”.

He went on to say that the bail-out of the banks by the governments of the UK, and the US is a huge mistake and that we would be paying for the mistakes of both governments for years to come.

He could well be right on that score but for him to single out the UK, when the US is as much a basket case as the UK, was a little unwise.

Since those dark days, the pound has managed to recover some ground and is currently up over 6% as at 22nd December, from the where it closed at the end of 2008.

The key question to be asked as we head into 2010 is can the pound put these lows behind it given the bleak economic outlook and the fact that the UK has just endured 6 successive quarters of negative growth.

Against the dollar the pound has recovered from trading at 1.4628 at the beginning of the year to be currently trading around the 1.5960 area, up just over 9% on the year as at 22nd December.

The technical prognosis is not good, however with the pound breaking below the 200 day moving average for the first time since May which could well trigger further declines against a resurgent dollar into the first quarter of 2010.

Against the Euro the prognosis is not much better even the pound has managed to make some gains recently over fears of sovereign debt downgrades in the Euro zone.

The Euro has so far managed to hold above its 200 day moving average, and has so far managed to halt further sterling gains, around the 0.8869 area.

The failure to sustain a close below this key long term support area keeps the downside pressure on the pound; however there is trend line Euro resistance at 0.9040, which could support the pound in the short term. A break higher would spell further sterling weakness.

There is no doubt that sterling is in for a difficult and choppy year, as we head into the next decade.

One of the main advantages we have over the Euro zone is the ability to set our own interest rates, and our own currency.

Certainly against the Euro there is the possibility of further sterling gains, especially given the condition of the economies of certain members of the Euro zone, as sovereign debt fears weigh on countries like Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy to name but a few, put further strain on monetary union.

Dollar weakens in year end trade

The dollar weakened against major rivals at the end of a light session as traders wound down positions ahead of the holiday weekend.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six others, slipped to 77.867 from 77.888 the previous session.

For the month of December, the index rose 3.6% on the back of upbeat economic data but recorded an annual loss of just over 4%.

Record low US interest rates have pressured the dollar and the Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate close to zero for some time in a bid to boost the economy.

The euro was down at $1.4331 on Thursday but is up 2.5% against the dollar for the year. The greenback closed out the year nearly 2% higher against the yen.

Pound Declines Before Policy Makers Meeting

The pound lost versus several key-currencies today and specially versus its regional rival, the euro, as traders speculate that U.K.’s financial authorities will insist in quantitative easing measures to stimulate the British economy, affecting the sterling outlook in currency markets.

The British currency posted a declining session versus most of the 16 main traded currencies two days before a Bank of England policy makers meeting, where, according to analysts, the current asset purchasing program will not be suspended, declining even further attractiveness for the pound, as the recession in the U.K. remains rather significant and measures are necessary to attempt starting a faster economic acceleration in the country. Even if the real estate market is providing positive data in the U.K. since November, the sentiment regarding the economic future in the nation is rather misty, stopping the pound to advance in foreign-exchange markets.

U.K.’s central bank strategy is following a different, and dovish, path than most of the wealthy nation’s policy makers. While interest rate hikes talks are a global trend, in the U.K., quantitative easing extensions are still possible, and this has a intense impact in the pound’s rates.

EUR/GBP traded at 0.8979 as of 19:10 GMT from a previous reading of 0.8945 yesterday. GBP/USD traded at 1.5983 from 1.6090.

US dollar slumps on Duke’s comments

The predominant theme of 2009 was of US dollar weakness, and this re-asserted itself overnight, after continued positive economic data re-established demand for riskier assets, and after Fed official Duke, reiterated that interest rates are expected to remain ultra low for some time to come.

The decline was most marked against the yen after exporter buying of yen and profit-taking on the recent dollar gains, saw the currency slip back from its highs.

EURUSD -the Euro’s recent bounce from its lows at 1.4215 last month, has seen the currency struggle just below 1.4500. Despite the gains in the past couple of days, the recent downside pressure remains intact, while below 1.4500. We may get a spill over to 1.4590, but while below this level the target of 1.3800 remains intact. A break and close above 1.4590, could trigger a move to 1.4800 and trigger stop loss buying on Euro short positions.

GBPUSD - struggled to get above 1.6240 yesterday after its rally from the December lows at 1.5830. The cable should remain stuck in this broad range between 1.6250 and the October lows at 1.5710, but with a bias to a break on the downside. Resistance at yesterday’s highs at 1.6240 and then behind that at 1.6425.

EURGBP - the Euro remains well bid predominantly on the back of sterling weakness, but is currently capped at resistance at 0.8980 area. The same recent range has dominated for the past few weeks. A break above 0.9000 re-targets 0.9070 while a break below 0.8920 re-targets the lows at 0.8830. There is also support from the October 2008 lows at 0.8850.

USDJPY - met last month’s target of 92.70, hitting 93.20 early yesterday morning in Asia. However profit-taking an yen repatriation by Japanese exporters has seen the dollar slip back. There is solid support between the 90.70 support area as well as the 91.10/20 and while this holds further upside is possible.

Romanian Leu Hits 6-Month High as Political Crisis Eases

The Romanian leu rallied today versus the euro and the U.S. dollar as interest rates were unexpectedly cut in the country after a political crisis that delayed an IMF bailout finally ended, adding confidence that stability in the parliament will lead the nation towards a faster recovery.

After interest rates were cut today to 7.5 percent at the lowest level in a year, the leu rose versus most of the main currencies, as a political crisis ended regarding disputes that affected the process of obtaining and using a $30 billion bailout provided by the International Monetary Fund to the Eastern European nation. The optimism regarding better economic days for Romania with political stabilization helped the leu to rally today.

EUR/RON closed at 4.1838 from an opening rate of 4.2137. USD/RON ended the day at 2.9033 from 2.9139.

Mexican Peso Extends Rally on U.S

The Mexican peso is benefiting from the U.S. economic outlook for 2010, as Mexico has the U.S. as the main destination for its exports, both raw and manufactured, and an accelerated growth of its neighbor is helping Mexico’s currency to gain in foreign-exchange markets.

The peso continued to profit today from a better confidence towards its main trading partner, the U.S., as well as for increased crude oil rates, since the Latin American nation is one of the main oil suppliers for the U.S. together with Canada, helping the peso and the loonie to trade high in the beginning of 2010.

USD/MXN traded at 12.8190 as of 20:13 GMT from an opening rate of 12.8750.

Market Awaits Job Data

USD

The dollar rebounded yesterday as markets were directionless and choppy yesterday. Looking ahead, ADP Employment numbers are released later today. Reaction to this number could be a barometer of where the dollar moves over the next several weeks. The dollar ended 2009 rallying on hopes that the US FED will raise rates sooner than expected. However, the rally has fizzled as traders have dumped dollars for riskier holdings. As a result, Gold, Crude Oil, and the Commodity currencies have rebounded. Therefore, Forex participants will be watching to see if the dollar will again act well on good US economic data, or will it continue the 2009 direction of primarily rallying as a safe haven.

EUR & GBP

Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD have traded lower in the last 24, but the moves could be of little consequence as on Thursday, both the BoE and ECB have their monthly policy meetings. Therefore, trading will probably continue to be volatile as Forex traders make their bets before the key meetings. Sentiment for both currencies has fallen, as both the UK and Eurozone are battling against high debt levels that are causing splits within the central banks of what is the best course of action for the future.

EURUSD Support/Resistance 1.4325/1.4450
GBPUSD Support/Resistance 1.5925/1.6150

AUD

Earlier this morning, Australian Building Approvals were released, and were better than expected. The numbers caused the AUDUSD to rise, and continues the momentum in the pair which has benefitted from higher Gold prices and a move by Forex trader into riskier currencies. The pair has currently traded towards its downtrend line (see chart). Therefore, if it can surpass this area, it could make a move higher towards its 2009 highs.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was stronger against almost all currencies except the Yen as weak housing data tempered the risk appetite of the market. November Pending Home Sales -16% vs. -2% m/m forecast. November Factory Orders at 1.1% vs. 0.5% forecast. DJIA -11 points closing at 10572, S&P +3 points closing at 1136 and NASDAQ +0.3 points closing at 2308. Looking ahead, December ADP Employment forecast at -73k vs. -169k previously. December ISM Non Manufacturing forecast at 50.5 vs. 38.7 previously. December FOMC minutes released.

The Euro (EUR) made fresh multi-week highs above resistance at 1.4450 before running out of steam once again in the US session. German Unemployment Change was -3k vs. 5k forecast and the Unemployment Rate remained at 8.1%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4344 and a high of 1.4486 before closing at 1.4360. Looking ahead, December PMI services are forecast at 53.7 vs. 53 previously. November PPI forecast at 0.2% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) had a strong day across the board as the USD/JPY tested the downside after a strong rally over the previous two weeks. A drop in US bond Yields and the resignation of the Finance Minister Fujii due to bad health were the main stories of the day. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.24 and a high of 92.54 before closing the day around 91.70 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) fell aggressively as the market focused on the UK debt outlook in 2010 and possibility of rating downgrades. EUR/GBP traded briefly above 0.9000 and GBP/AUD briefly below 1.7500 both key levels. On the Cable the 1.6000 provided some minor support but the bounce was limited and the pair remained under pressure. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5964 and a high of 1.6156 before closing the day at 1.6005 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December PMI Services forecast at 56.6 vs. 56.6 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) made small fresh 2010 highs at 0.9176 before falling back with the rest of the market in the US session. AUD/JPY profit taking was the main culprit as the pair slipped form 84.50 to 83.40. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9091 and a high of 0.9176 before closing the US session at 0.9120. UPDATE November Building Permits +5.9% vs. +3% previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) remained well supported on dips but struggled to push higher. Overall trading with a low of USD$1115 and high of USD$1129 before ending the New York session at USD$1118 an ounce. Cold Global Weather helped Oil remain on a bullish footing. Crude Oil was up $0.26 ending the New York session at $81.77.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro - 1.4350

Initial support at 1.4258 (Jan 4 low) followed by 1.4218 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4591 (Dec 16 high) followed by 1.4685 (Dec 14 low)

Yen - 91.60

Initial support is located at 91.26 (Jan 5 low) followed by 91.00 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.22 (Jan 4 high) followed by 93.3 (Dec 18 High).

Pound - 1.5970

Initial support at 1.5966 (Jan 5 low) followed by 1.5833 (Dec 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6241 (Jan 4 high) followed by 1.6248 (Dec 18 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9120

Initial support at 0.8939 (Jan 4 low) followed by the 0.8902 (Dec 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9195 (Dec 11 high) followed by 0.9323 (Dec 3 high).

Gold - 1120

Initial support at 1093 (Jan 4 low) followed by 1086 (Dec 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1141 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1147 (Dec 9 high).

Oil - 81.50

Initial support at 80 (Major level) followed by 79.10 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (November 2009 High) followed by 85 (Major level).

Forex Trader Library

Receive over 15 hours (8 CD's) of our best Forex trading education in one package! Containing the newest Advanced Forex CD, this education pack focuses on exactly what you need to know to become a successful Forex Trader.

The dollar strengthened in today's Asian session

The green currency strengthened in today's Asian session to gain against the euro for the second straight day and gain against the royal pound for the third day. On the other hand the dollar rallied against the yen after a sharp decline lasted for three days.

The euro dollar pair fell slightly recording a low of 1.4333 and a high of 1.4368, having the union currency trading around 1.4355. The pair couldn't breach the 1.4460 levels yesterday, and fell back to the 1.4365 levels and today it is having a support at 1.4300 along with a resistance at 1.4385. The four hour stochastic oscillator is suggesting more declines today, so we may see the pair declining to the 1.4255 levels.

Regarding the pound dollar pair, it breached the 1.6010 levels yesterday and currently the pair is trading around 1.5955. The pair is having a support at 1.5900 along with a resistance at 1.6025, and the pair is trading in an oversold area according to the four hour momentum indicators, so it might gain slightly today before it start falling again below the 1.5900 levels. However, the pair recorded a high of 1.6004 and a low of 1.5943.

Finally, the dollar rallied against the Japanese yen in today's Asian session to offset a sharp decline we witnessed yesterday, and the pair recorded a high of 92.12 and a low of 91.50. Today's resistance could be found at 92.50, while the support could be found at 91.45 and momentum indicators on the four hours charts are supporting the upside, so we may see the pair climbing further today, but the general trend remains to the downside